After an exhilarating and circulation-packed Play-In Match, the 2024 NBA Playoffs officially begin this weekend. The bracket is locked in with eight groups locked in for every conference, and NBA Finals odds had been up up to now. Let the video games — and the making a wager picks, participant props, and sequence-long prop bets — begin!
Many NBA and making a wager analysts maintain this postseason will feature substitute chalk, that means the upper-seeded groups will doubtless reach early and most steadily. We’re not drawn to such baseless theories or blind religion in groups that done with better regular-season details. We sinister our picks and wagers on new stats, making a wager trends, and historic knowledge.
MORE NBA PLAYOFFS: As much as this point bracket | Finals odds
That’s the reason we now win pinpointed one key stat or making a wager pattern for every of the eight first-round matchups within the 2024 NBA Playoffs. We are going to gift why every little bit of details finds a key support for every team we’re picking to reach, serving to you uncover an edge on the sequence and participant prop market sooner than this weekend’s circulation.
Here’s our one key stat or pattern for every of the eight opening-round matchups within the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Exact success, win stress-free, and go construct some money!
NBA Playoffs making a wager advice: One key stat or pattern for every first-round sequence
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an licensed gaming operator of the NBA.
Celtics (No. 1) vs. Heat (No. 8):
The Celtics went an fantastic 37-4 at dwelling this season, a phenomenal feat in a season that enjoyed staunch parity. Boston locking up the No. 1 seed within the East weeks sooner than the regular season concluded also afforded Joe Mazzulla the liberty to rotate leisure among his stars leading up to the postseason.
Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and firm had been the percentages-on favorites to accumulate the NBA Finals since GM Brad Stevens landed Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. They’re overwhelming favorites to reach to the second round, and historical past tells us that they’ll accumulate their opening-round sequence by 3-4 video games.
Over the past 40 years, 20 NBA groups win misplaced four video games or fewer at dwelling in an on a typical basis season. Rob a seek at how the 19 diversified squads fared within the principle round of the playoffs after mounting their historic dwelling details that twelve months:
| Crew | Home File |
1st round rupture end result |
| 2015-16 Spurs | 40-1 | 4-0 sweep |
| 1985-86 Celtics | 40-1 | 3-0 sweep |
| 2015-16 Warriors | 39-2 | 4-1 accumulate |
| 2014-15 Warriors | 39-2 | 4-0 sweep |
| 2008-09 Cavaliers | 39-2 | 4-0 sweep |
| 1996-97 Bulls | 39-2 | 3-0 sweep |
| 1995-96 Bulls | 39-2 | 3-0 sweep |
| 1994-95 Magic | 39-2 | 3-1 accumulate |
| 1986-87 Celtics | 39-2 | 3-0 sweep |
| 2012-13 Nuggets | 38-3 | 4-2 loss |
| 2004-05 Spurs | 38-3 | 4-1 accumulate |
| 1996-97 Jazz | 38-3 | 3-0 sweep |
| 1995-96 Sonics | 38-3 | 3-1 accumulate |
| 2012-13 Heat | 37-4 | 4-0 sweep |
| 1986-87 Lakers | 37-4 | 3-0 sweep |
| 1988-89 Pistons | 37-4 | 3-0 sweep |
| 1989-90 Lakers | 37-4 | 3-1 accumulate |
| 1993-94 Sonics | 37-4 | 3-2 loss |
| 1997-98 Bulls | 37-4 | 3-0 sweep |
| 2023-24 Celtics | 37-4 | TBD |
Astonishing! The groups with the excellent dwelling details of all time win dominated their first-round playoff matchups in that very same season, a hit by a chain sweep or gentleman’s sweep in 17 of the 19 cases. The collective first-round document of the excellent dwelling squads since 1985: 64-9.
Long tale instant, historical past is on Boston’s facet. We maintain this pattern will proceed and the Celtics will accumulate their opening-round sequence over Miami 4-0 or 4-1. Thus, Boston’s -2.5 sequence spread is a handiest wager (the Celtics swept the Heat this season, and now Jimmy Butler is injured).
We also like the Inexperienced’s possibilities of a hit the Japanese Convention Finals (-200), as 14 of the 37-4 or better dwelling groups made it to the championship round that twelve months and the East is as banged-up as we now win maybe ever viewed it within the postseason.
MORE: A scrutinize at every Celtics All-Well-known particular person true thru NBA historical past
Insist (No. 1) vs. Pelicans (No. 8)
The Insist had been definitely some of the more dominant groups within the NBA this season, ending 57-25 on the season and 33-8 at dwelling. They also went 36-16 in conference video games. Now OKC gets to play the Pelicans with out Zion Williamson.
The Pels obtained trounced 107-83 the final time they faced the Insist with Zion sidelined. The paunchy sequence odds win yet to pass live, but we’re presumably making a wager the Insist to accumulate by over 1.5 video games.
MORE: Insist indicate age is correct a bunch
Knicks (No. 2) vs. 76ers (No. 7)
The Knicks win long past 20-3 with OG Anunoby filled with life since they obtained the 2-manner massive title from the Raptors. Novel York has also long past 27-14 at dwelling, whereas Philadelphia went true 23-30 in opposition to groups that made the Play-In or playoffs.
Nonetheless the excellent stat of them all: the Knicks beat the Sixers 3-1 in their regular-season sequence, and that used to be sooner than Paul Reed ran his mouth about how Philly wished to play the ‘more straightforward’ first-round opponent in Novel York. Rob the Knicks (-115) on the sequence moneyline, or go for the plus odds and wager them -1.5 on the sequence spread (+210).
MORE: Knicks-76ers sequence making a wager preview
Nuggets (No. 2) vs. Lakers (No. 7)
The Nuggets win defeated the LeBron James and Anthony Davis-led Lakers eight consecutive times since the launch of the 2022-23 season and in 10 of their past 13 meetings dating support to Valentine’s Day 2021. They swept L.A. within the Western Convention Finals final season.
Denver — and more particularly Nikola Jokic — seem like LeBron’s contemporary-day Kryptonite. What’s worse, the Nugs went 33-8 at Ball Arena this season, whereas L.A. went true 19-21 on the road. Back the Nuggets -1.5 within the sequence spread (-175).
MORE: Nuggets-Lakers sequence making a wager preview
Bucks (No. 3) vs. Pacers (No. 6)
Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo filled with life, the Bucks allowed a whopping 64 facets within the paint to the Pacers over their past four meetings. That is been Indiana’s secret to success over Milwaukee all season, and we manufacture not think Doc Rivers’ Bucks will with out notice blow the doors off the Pacers within the playoffs, in particular with Giannis missing the principle couple video games.
We attain win Milwaukee one intention or the other a hit the sequence thanks to sizzling taking pictures and dwelling-courtroom support, but we would strongly expose making a wager the sequence to pass OVER 5.5 entire video games (-225). It be substitute juice, nonetheless it shall be a massive wager as there could be no manner both of these groups endure a gentleman’s sweep.
MORE: How Giannis harm impacts Bucks-Paceers making a wager odds
Wolves (No. 3) vs. Suns (No. 6)
The Suns swept the Wolves 3-0 within the regular season, with Phoenix keeping Anthony Edwards to under 14 facets per game within the midst of. That is fewer facets than the Suns’ sensible margin of victory over Minnesota on the season!
We entirely notice why Frank Vogel’s squad has been made the making a wager popular to accumulate this sequence. Unfold the bottom, hit photos, and comprise Ant-man, and you’ll want to well maybe be getting past the Wolves. We’re backing the Suns (-120) to reach.
MORE: Suns-Wolves sequence making a wager preview
Magic (No. 4) vs. Cavaliers (No. 5)
The Magic pressured a median of 15 turnovers per game this season, third-handiest within the NBA. The Cavaliers went 12-11 when turning the ball over 15-plus times. They’ve also misplaced five straight contests and six of their final eight video games to playoff squads when committing that many turnovers.
The season sequence between these squads used to be moderately even. They break up the sequence 2-2 with Orlando averaging 107.5 facets per game and Cleveland averaging 112.5. We’re leaning toward Cleveland to eke out the sequence, but we bask in it to rob all seven video games to uncover out the winner. Bet the OVER of 6.5 video games (+225) and root for this one to be the knock-down, hotfoot-out we inquire of it to be.
Clippers (No. 4) vs. Mavericks (No. 5)
The magic number for this sequence is 7-7. And no, we’re not talking a few 7-Up with Seagram’s Seven bask in my gigantic aunt extinct to drink. Relationship support to the launch of the 2020-21 season, the Clippers and Mavericks win long past 7-7 head-to-head within the regular season.
MORE: Clippers-Mavericks sequence making a wager preview
Los Angeles has also long past 7-7 this season with out Kawhi Leonard, whose dwelling stays sunless with a knee harm. With how successfully the Mavericks had been playing of leisurely — a hit 13 of their past 15 competitive video games sooner than resting their starters within the final two video games of the season — we bask in this massive title-studded 4-5 sequence to pass OVER 6.5 video games (+240).