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Tuesday, November 28, 2023

NFL odds, picks, predictions for Week 9: Skilled model projects Bengals, Eagles, Chiefs to construct up high Sunday matchups

There could no longer be a higher weekend of matchups than the slate of video games on Sunday.

NFL fans open up their morning by looking at the Chiefs face the Dolphins in Germany. The early afternoon window aspects the high-powered offenses of the Seahawks and Ravens squaring off sooner than the Cowboys and Eagles face off in their first competition matchup of the yr.

The night cap to the day ends with an AFC Divisional Round rematch between the Bengals and Payments that could fair quiet be one other shut fight with Cincinnati on the upswing after a accumulate in opposition to the 49ers.

MORE: Be a half of Caesars to salvage your NFL Week 9 picks

Each and every week, Sporting Data’ model will mission every recreation in the NFL 10,000 times to generate the choice of times a crew wins a matchup and calculate the accumulate chance. The model adjusts after every week as it learns more about every crew and that crew’s quarterback.

Listed for every recreation is its projected spread, per the model, and a crew’s accumulate chance. We devour additionally included up-to-the-minute playoff and Trim Bowl odds at the bottom. The odds listed with every recreation are no longer in step with bookmakers, but fairly how the model sees the sport having fun with out. We can then assessment the model’s odds with those from Caesars, to peek how bookmakers are seeing the week’s video games.

That is how the model sees Week 9 shaping up.

NFL WEEK 9 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread

NFL picks, predictions Week 9

Steelers (-2) vs. Titans

Fetch chance: 58.6%, Steelers

Kenny Pickett appears to be like heading in the appropriate direction to play on “Thursday Night Soccer,” which could fair quiet give the Steelers a preserve shut in opposition to a tight Titans crew. Tennessee looked a runt bit better on offense with Will Levis below center, and he’s anticipated to earn the open up but another time in opposition to Pittsburgh. Bookmakers devour the Steelers as 2.5-level home favorites in opposition to the Titans, virtually the identical because the two-level spread by the model, in what’s going to be a low-scoring recreation.

Chiefs (-8) vs. Dolphins

Fetch chance: 75.7%, Chiefs

Kansas City dropped a recreation to the Broncos for the well-known time in 16 video games, and questions devour swiftly re-emerged relating to the offense. No subject that, the model is quiet a lot more assured in Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, making them a whopping eight-level favorites over the Dolphins. Caesars projects the spread a lot closer in Germany, favoring Kansas City only by 1.5.

Vikings (-4) vs. Falcons

Fetch chance: 63.4%, Vikings

The first where the model and making a bet markets disagree, the model has the Vikings as 4-level favorites, while Caesars has the Falcons as 5-level favorites. The well-known changes are at quarterback, where the Vikings will flip to Jaren Hall and the Falcons will flip to Taylor Heinicke. To dangle why the model leaned this fashion, it be essential to undergo in thoughts it models a extinct stamp for rookie quarterbacks with runt to no ride, which, while quiet lower than its valuation of Heinicke, quiet manner it be no longer counting him out. The model sees Minnesota as a higher crew at this level in the season than Atlanta and locations the QB arena at virtually a toss up, giving Minnesota the threshold even at streetlevel.

Browns (-12) vs. Cardinals

Fetch chance: 84.3%, Browns

Each and every the Browns and Cardinals come into the week with quarterback uncertainty. The Browns will either flip to P.J. Walker for a fourth straight recreation or devour Deshaun Watson are trying to return from destroy. The Cardinals will either devour Clayton Tune or Kyler Murray return. No subject who’s initiating in center, every the model (12 elements) and Caesars (8 elements) are favoring the Browns carefully in a rental tilt in opposition to Arizona.

Rams (PK) vs. Packers

Fetch chance: 50.2%, Rams

This spread could substitute if Matthew Stafford is unable to ride in opposition to the Packers, but for now, the model has the sport as a puny Rams edge, even supposing only by fractions of a percent. The Packers are in a free tumble with four straight losses, while the Rams as a minimal devour looked severely better despite a blowout loss to the Cowboys. Caesars has the Packers as 3-level favorites in Green Bay.

Texans (-3) vs. Buccaneers

Fetch chance: 61.1%, Texans

The Buccaneers started off scorching with a 3-1 document, but devour now misplaced three straight video games. The Texans are quiet a runt unpredictable, having excellent misplaced to the Panthers for Carolina’s first accumulate of the season. A nice fraction of the resolution for the sport comes the final model down to the quarterback and the placement: C.J. Stroud at this level appears to be like better than Baker Mayfield, and the sport is in Houston. The road from Caesars (2.5) and the model (3) is virtually the identical in favoring Houston.

Saints (-7) vs. Bears

Fetch chance: 73.1%, Saints

Tyson Bagent has surely had his moments in filling in for Justin Fields to this level all over the final few video games. Nonetheless heading at streetlevel to face New Orleans appears devour a tough design, even supposing the Saints don’t seem to be as excellent because the model originally anticipated them to be. The Saints made it shut in opposition to Jacksonville then drummed the Colts to set some faith this crew can quiet be the end of the NFC South. Caesars (8.5) has even much less faith in the Bears than the model (7), which every devour spreads picking the Saints to construct up at home.

Patriots (-4) vs. Commanders

Fetch chance: 64.3%, Patriots

It be essential to instruct that the one personnel the model considers for groups is the quarterback. That the Commanders traded away Montez Sweat and Race Young would no longer bid into the projection. But it’s in agreement with Caesars to prefer New England by a runt bit higher than a discipline intention, with the market striking the Pats as 3.5-level favorites and the model going by 4.

Ravens (-5) vs. Seahawks

Fetch chance: 67%, Ravens

No subject huge spreads from the model (5) and Caesars (6) that every pick Baltimore to construct up, this has your complete makings of an inviting recreation. The Seahawks got Leonard Williams to bolster their defense, and the offense has looked stable despite some redzone inefficiencies. The Ravens, on the opposite hand, seem to be a great Trim Bowl contender and will hope to utilize this home matchup in opposition to Seattle to extra bolster their region atop the AFC North every in the original standings and in the projected season.

Panthers (-1) vs. Colts

Fetch chance: 55.1%, Panthers

The Panthers in the raze picked up their first accumulate of the season. Now the model is picking them to earn their 2d, favoring Carolina by some extent in a shut matchup with Indianapolis. Caesars is quiet skeptical of the Panthers, and has the Colts as 2.5-level favorites. 

Eagles (-5) vs. Cowboys

Fetch chance: 68%, Eagles

In most weeks, this could seem to be basically the most compelling recreation of the week. The Cowboys were streaky, but peek dominant after they’re on. The Eagles devour kept profitable, but haven’t been as dominant as previous years. The NFC East will earn its first behold of seeing the two groups head-to-head after they meet up in Philadelphia. Each and every Caesars (3) and the model (5) are picking the Eagles, but the spreads are within a single rating.

Raiders (-1) vs. Giants

Fetch chance: 54.4%, Raiders

The Giants could very smartly be in line to earn Daniel Jones abet, which would be an good enhance for an offense that accumulated minus-9 passing yards final week in an beyond traditional time loss to the Jets. The Raiders are in a tumultuous bid, having excellent fired Josh McDaniels and changing Jimmy Garoppolo with Aidan O’Connell. Garoppolo has been among the worst QBs in the league when on the discipline, so initiating O’Connell if truth be told boosts Las Vegas’ probabilities to construct up at home. Caesars has the Raiders as 2-level favorites, excellent a half of-level sooner than the model’s 1-level Raiders edge.

Bengals (-1) vs. Payments

Fetch chance: 54.7%, Bengals

This surely appears to be like to be the Game of the Week. The Bengals are abet after the offense roared to life at streetlevel in opposition to the 49ers, while the Payments looked explosive but another time after torching a tight Buccaneers defense. Cincinnati trounced Buffalo in the AFC Divisional Round final yr, but this has your complete makings of a nail-biter between two of the AFC’s high Trim Bowl contenders. It be shut, with Caesars picking the Bengals by 2 and the model going Bengals by 1, every reflective of Cincinnati’s homefield succor.

Chargers (PK) vs. Jets

Fetch chance: 51.1%, Chargers

The model is no longer entirely sold on the Chargers. Los Angeles overwhelmed the Bears, but it be otherwise been an underwhelming season. Attributable to this Caesars favors Los Angeles by 3, and the model has the sport as a pick ’em. The Jets proceed to net ways to construct up, and at home in top time, that could very smartly be your complete contrast in the model’s eyes.

Up to date NFL projections 2023

AFC East

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Convention champion% Trim Bowl champion%
Dolphins 11-6 58.0% 26.5% 84.6% 11.4% 9.1% 4.6%
Payments 10-7 24.6% 38.5% 63.1% 2.2% 7.0% 3.5%
Jets 9-8 17.3% 28.6% forty five.9% 1.4% 2.3% 1.3%
Patriots 5-12 0.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC North

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Convention champion% Trim Bowl champion%
Ravens 12-5 65.2% 26.5% 91.7% 18.5% 16.9% 8.6%
Bengals 10-7 15.8% 39.8% 55.6% 2.2% 5.2% 2.5%
Browns 10-7 10.3% 35.9% 46.2% 1.1% 2.1% 1.0%
Steelers 9-8 8.7% 30.8% 39.6% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5%

AFC South

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Convention champion% Trim Bowl champion%
Jaguars 12-5 85.4% 6.7% 92.1% 14.1% 12.1% 6.5%
Titans 8-9 8.5% 12.4% 21.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Texans 7-10 4.9% 10.7% 15.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Colts 7-10 1.1% 5.6% 6.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

AFC West

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Convention champion% Trim Bowl champion%
Chiefs 13-4 94.5% 4.1% 98.6% 47.2% 41.4% 22.5%
Chargers 8-9 5.0% 26.7% 31.7% 0.5% 2.1% 0.8%
Broncos 7-10 0.2% 4.5% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Raiders 6-11 0.3% 1.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

NFC East

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Convention champion% Trim Bowl champion%
Eagles 13-4 75.0% 24.7% ninety 9.7% 52.3% 37.7% 19.8%
Cowboys 11-6 24.9% 68.5% 93.4% 14.1% 14.1% 6.1%
Giants 6-11 0.1% 2.7% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Commanders 6-11 0.0% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC North

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Convention champion% Trim Bowl champion%
Lions 12-5 77.2% 18.2% 95.4% 16.3% 14.1% 6.3%
Vikings 9-8 22.0% 50.2% 72.2% 1.1% 4.2% 1.7%
Packers 6-11 0.4% 4.4% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bears 6-11 0.4% 2.5% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC South

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Convention champion% Trim Bowl champion%
Saints 9-8 57.1% 11.7% 68.9% 0.6% 2.8% 0.9%
Falcons 8-9 31.9% 13.6% forty five.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Buccaneers 7-10 10.2% 7.8% 18.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Panthers 5-12 0.8% 0.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC West

Team xW-L Division% Wild card% Playoff% No. 1 seed% Convention champion% Trim Bowl champion%
49ers 11-6 66.2% 28.6% 94.7% 11.6% 19.9% 10.0%
Seahawks 10-7 32.0% 49.6% 81.6% 3.9% 6.4% 2.8%
Rams 7-10 1.8% 15.0% 16.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Cardinals 3-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

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